The objective of this research is to use a stochastic process for building a model using Bayesian parameter estimation. The model is applied to the of crash prices and future prices of rice in Thailand for 120 moths including monthly closing average price of white rice 5% non-glutinous paddy 15% and Hom Mali non-glutinous paddy 105. The data are time series data containing autocorrelation trend seasonality and outliers. The algorithms are turned into codes in OpenBugs and the performance of the model is evaluated using simulation in R. The model with a Weibull cumulative distribution function trend the model with an exponential cumulative distribution function trend and the exponential smoothing model are compared. The root mean squared error (RMSE) mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are used as the criteria. The results show that the model with the model with an exponential cumulative distribution function trend gives smallest RMSE MAPE and MAE for the crash prices of non-glutinous paddy 15% and Hom Mali non-glutinous paddy 105 for both model fitting part and model validation part. The model with a Weibull cumulative distribution function trend gives the smallest RMSE MAPE and MAE for the closing average price of white rice 5% for both model fitting part and model validation part.

The objectives of this research are to propose a Bayesian model for spatial time series analysis to apply the proposed model to forecast a monthly rubber yield in Southern provinces of Thailand and to compare the performance of the proposed model with the classical Holt-Winters Additive Exponential smoothing. The proposed model is a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects which follow a conditional autoregressive model (CAR). Dummy variables are used for seasonal effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation. The estimated monthly yields are used for the monthly rubber yield forecasting. The dependent variables are the rubber yield in each month of each province. The data are secondary data at a provincial level. The factors considered are spatial effects heterogeneity effects and seasonal effects. The results show that the factors influencing on the amount of rubber yields are spatial heterogeneity and seasonal effects. The proposed model is proper and forecast accurately. Using the mean absolute error (MAE) the proposed model has a better performance compared to the classical Holt-Winters Additive Exponential smoothing in both model fitting and model validating. The proposed model should be the first consideration for spatial time series forecasting.

The objective of this research is to select a proper cumulative function for trend in an analysis of simultaneous multiple time series data with autocorrelation trend and outliers using a Bayesian method. The proposed model is applied to fluctuate stock price data in the stock exchange of Thailand. The data consist of the closing prices of 5 stocks. The algorithms are written in OpenBUGS and the performance of the model is evaluated via a simulation study in R. The cumulative distribution functions considered here are a Weibull cumulative distribution function and an exponential cumulative distribution. They are compared using RMSE MAPE and MAE as criteria. The research found that an exponential cumulative function for trends gives smaller values of the three criteria in both model fitting and model validation for the4 stocks EA NWR and KTB. However a Weibull cumulative distribution function gives smaller values of three criteria for the PTT in both model fitting and model validation.

Thai desserts have unique appearance and characteristic cause ingredient and processing. Thai desserts processing is very complicate which Thai dessert is decreased to produce and consume. Difficulty Thai desserts processing were surveyed and ranked. Top 5 of difficulty processing were Kanom Kasornlamjeak Kanom Krok Kanom Beaung Thai Kanom Thong Ekk and Kanom Jamongkut. Kanom Kasornlamjeak consists with wrap flour and filler which made from coconut. The process of wrap flour is complicate. Flour mixing time (20 30 and 40 min) was studied. Increasing mixing time improved wrap flour forming. The sensory evaluation result showed that Kanom Kasornlamjeak with flour mixing time 20 min got a good preference score from the panelists. Kanom Krok consists with rice flour and coconut milk. The characteristic of Kanom Krok is crispy flour and forming. The concentration of lime water (0.5 1.0 and 1.5%) was studied. Increasing lime water concentration increased crispiness and hardness of Kanom Krok. Kanome Krok with 1.0% lime water received the highest preference score. Kanom Beaung Thai consists with casing flour and filler. The important characteristic of Kanom Beaung is crispy casing flour. The concentration of lime water (0.5 1.0 and 1.5%) was studied. Increasing lime water concentration increased crispiness and hardness. The sensory evaluation result showed that casing flour with 1.0% lime water got a high preference score. Coconut milk and wheat flour are the important ingredients in Kanom Thong Ekk. They were mixed and stirred until smooth paste to press in a plastic mold. Cooking temperature; 60 65 and 70C were studied. Increasing temperature increased oil separation and gelation. Kanom Thong EKK with cooking temperture at 65C received the highest preference score.Kanom Jamongkut is a Thai dessert that the shape looks like a crown. Watermelon seeds are the most important ingredient which are coated with sugar syrup and composed to be a crown. The amount of watermelon seeds coated with sugar were studied which were 50 100 and 150 seeds per batch. Increasing watermelon seed per batch to coat it with sugar syrup it did not look like a crown. Sensory evaluation result showed that 50 watermelon seeds coated with sugar received highest preference score.

This research for study behavior of Thai Boxer about consumer behavior study the way to control body and study the quantity of energy in Thai’s boxer by their meal. The target is Thai’s boxer in Huaykwang district Bangkok. There are 36 persons from 2 campuses LUKBANYAI GYM 18 Persons THAIKIETPETCH GYM 18 Persons. The researcher uses Descriptive Research for record there are two ways to keep the result: questionnaire and keep the schedule of their meal. The researchers summarize percentage standard deviation Pearson Correlation Paired Samples Test with standard 0.05 The boxers have consumer behavior low from the base 66.7 upper percentage 33.3 percentages via spread nutrition: Carbohydrate there are include low cholesterol and protein which have upper nutrition from the base of athlete’s nutrition. The result shows good behavior such as eating 5 group and homemade food are 3.01 Bad behavior such as eating protein for health: Glucose eggs boiled 1-4 eggs per day are normal 2.04 The consumer behavior of boxer before fighting concern with hyper nutrition at least if compare boxer’s need with nutrition it shows 0.05 percentages.