จำนวน Repository ( 30 )
การเลือกฟังก์ชันฤดูกาลที่เหมาะสม ในตัวแบบอนุกรมเวลาแบบเบย์ สาหรับวิเคราะห์ราคาและผลผลิตยางพารา ในประเทศไทย
The objectives of this research were to create a model for time sereries data prices and yields of natural rubber to be more accurate prediction and to compare the proposed model with the classical time series models such as the Holt-Winters Additive Exponential smoothing model (Holt-Winters ES) and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA). The proposed model was a linear mixed model (LMM) consisting with trend autoregression outliers and sesonal terms. Dummy varialbles and Fourier seasonal effects were studied. Bayesian estimation was used and the estimated prices and yields were used for prediction. The results show that the proposed model with a Fouries seasonal effect is the most appropriated comparing with the dummy seasonal effect the Holt-Winters ES and the SARIMA having the least mean absolute values (MAE) both fiting and validating parts. The proposed model with sesaonal dummy variables should be the first consideration for forecasting spatial time series with a seasonal component.
ตัวแบบผสมเชิงเส้นวางนัยทั่วไป สาหรับข้อมูลที่มีความสัมพันธ์เชิงเวลา และเชิง พื้นที่ ประยุกต์ใช้กับโรคฉี่หนูในประเทศไทย
The objectives of this research are to estimate the morbidity rates of Leptospirosis in each month of all provinces in Thailand to determine the trend of leptospirosis over time to investigate factors influencing on the morbidity rates and to construct the disease maps of the leptospirosis. The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the spatial effects follow the conditional autoregressive model (CAR) and the temporal effects follow a linear trend. The estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the disease maps. The dependent variables are the numbers of leptospirosis patients in each month of each province and are assumed to have a Poisson distribution. The data are secondary data at a provincial level. The factors considered are rainfall averaged temperatures and regions. The results show that the factors influencing on the morbidity rates are rainfall (Relative Risk (RR) = 1.0013) averaged temperature (RR = 0.9922) north region (RR = 10.6440) northeast region (RR = 14.3249) southern region (RR = 15.5491) western region (RR = 3.6219) and eastern region (RR = 1.0103) where the central region is a reference region and a linear trend (RR = 1.0183). The top ten province and months with high morbidity rates (per 1000000 population) ranking from largest to smallest values are Phangnga in September (59.00) Phangnga in August (33.49) Sisaket in October (23.14) Sisaket in August ศรีสะเกษ (22.60) Sisaket in September (22.57) Phngnga in October (22.55) Loei in September (21.11) Phangnga in July (20.81) Phangnga in May (20.72) and Phangnga in June (20.47) respectively. The leptospirosis maps are easy for readers to identify which areas are at high risk. They are a useful tool for planning and controlling the leptospirosis.
Geo-informatics for ecotourism: ban mae klang luang model
Geo-Informatics for Ecotourism: Ban Mae Klang Luang Model is participatory action research (PAR) conducing to share knowledge together. Furthermore Ban Mae Klang Luang Model is important mechanism for management of natural resources and environment for ecotourism. Example local resource landmark natural trail firebreaks landuse etc. Community can create that on model by themselves. Creating a website to show information of Ban Mae Klang Luang. Klang Luang; for example : general information home stay economic community knowledge’s philosopher and experiences ideas of living and lead to graduate desirable. The results show that Ban Mae Klang Luang Model can manage natural resources and environment for ecotourism which can be implemented by local communities for sustainable and efficient. However the experience between students and the community is the practical work for learning.
Mathematical modelling for design the control system of a liquid
This paper presents a mathematical modelling for design the control system of a liquid. The system are consists of one and two tanks of a liquid. To confirm the achieved mathematical modelling is used to design P PI PD and PID controller in the frequency domain. The experimental results are indicated as the following. An one tank of a liquid controlling The controller can be control the liquid level to set point with in 100s. In the case of a disturbance occurs in the system it is perform by drain a liquid. As same as the controller it can be control the liquid level into the steady state. In the part of the liquid control this is the interaction between two tanks. The experimental results of the system operation the controller can be control the liquid into the set point both occur disturbance and without disturbance respectively
The Development of Mathematical Model Using for Determined the Properties of Refrigerant Mixture.
Blends of R22/R152a/R124 have been proposed to replace R12 in refrigeration systems.In this research work a technique to simply evaluate thermodynamic properties of refrigerant mixtures has been developed from Raoults Law.the method has been approached to evaluate the properties of the refrigerant blends avalable in the market such as MP39( R22/R152/R124 53/13/34)MP52 (R22/R152a/R124 33/15/52)and MP66 (R22/R152/R124 61/11/28) .The results agree well with those given by the manufacture within 5 % error The method has also been used to evaluate the properties of the ( R32/R125/R134a 23/25/52)refrigerant agree wall with those given from the manufacture with in 3 % error The thermodynamic property dlagrams of these refrigerant blends are also proposed.