The objective of this study was to construct the black pepper prices forecasting model by 4 statistical methods: Box-Jenkins method Holt’s exponential smoothing method Brown’s exponential smoothing method and damped trend exponential smoothing method. Time series of monthly black pepper prices which were gathered from the website of the Office of Agricultural Economics during January 2005 to December 2018 of 168 observations were divided into 2 datasets. The first dataset had 156 observations from January 2005 to December 2017 for constructing the forecasting models. The second dataset had 12 observations from January to December 2018 for comparing the accuracy of the forecasts via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). Research findings indicated that for all forecasting methods that had been studied the most accurate method was damped trend exponential smoothing method (MAPE = 6.5773 RMSE = 10.3775)

The purposes of this study were to study amount modified starch substitution by rice canned mackerel in tomato sauce seasoned with black pepper ratio at 15:85 20:80 and 25:75 percentage. The results showed that the best formulation of product was rice flour (percentage) 20:80 because sauce in can were red orange pH of sauce was = 6. The result of the study showed that the physical and chemical attributes of product canned mackerel in tomato sauce seasoned with black pepper compared with control. Found that canned mackerel in tomato sauce seasoned with black pepper of dark orange more than control. pH = 6.05 – 6.15 were similar moisture protein fat and carbohydrate content but the differences in ash content. The consumer acceptability indicated of target consumer accepted the product consumer need to buy this product 79% like moderately this product 72% and suitable price about 15 bath/can. The product of storage 6 mouths and not detects mesophilic aerobic bacteria and thermophilic aerobic bacteria.