The objective of this research is to propose a forecasting model for uncertain demand index data of steel. The forecasting model proposed by Yelland (2010) was modified by adjusting the prior distributions of some parameters in the model in order that it is suitable for the demand of steel in Thailand. The algorithms for model fitting were written in OpenBUGS. The proposed model was compared to a classical exponential smoothing model. The research found that the forecast errors from the proposed forecasting model were minimum.

The objectives of this research are: to study the characteristics of students in the Faculty of Engineering at Rajamangala University of Technology Pra Nakorn North Bangkok Campus that influence to the risk of withdrawal from Calculus 2 for Engineers; to predict the risk of withdrawal from Calculus 2 for Engineers; and to use the results of the study for planning and solving the problems of withdrawal from Calculus 2 for Engineers. The sample is 226 students in the Faculty of Engineering at Rajamangala University of Technology who enrolled the Calculus 2 for engineers in the second semester of the academic year 2009. The data are from the questionnaire. The factors considered are grad point average the number of enrollments for the Calculus 1 for engineers Calculus 1 for Engineers grade the number of courses that emphasize on calculation that were enrolled in the second semester of the academic year 2009 the sacrifices of students for the Calculus 2 for Engineers course and the need to withdraw from Calculus 2 for Engineers course before other courses. The logistic regression model in which the parameters are estimated by using Bayesian methods is used for analyzing the data. The study shows that the factors that influence to the risk of withdrawal from the Calculus 2 for Engineers are grade point average Calculus 1 for Engineers grade the number of courses that emphasize on calculation that were enrolled in the second semester of the academic year 2009 and the sacrifices of students for the Calculus 2 for Engineers and the need to withdraw from Calculus 2 for Engineers before other courses. The factor that does not influence to the risk of withdrawal from the Calculus 2 for Engineers is the number of enrollments for the Calculus 1 for Engineers.