The purpose of this research was to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the export values of alcoholic beverages using three-time series analysis methods including Box-Jenkins method damped trend exponential smoothing method and combined forecasting method. Time series data from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics with total 199 months from January 1998 to July 2014 were used and divided into two series. The first 192- month data from January 1998 until December 2013 were used to build the forecasting models and the last 7-month data from January to July 2014 were used to compare the forecasting method accuracy via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. Research findings indicated that for all forecasting methods that had been studied combined forecasting method was the most accurate method and this model was when and represent the single forecasts at time t from Box-Jenkins method and damped trend exponential smoothing method respectively.

This research aims to study the properties of local plants Phraek Nam Daeng community for the development of a herbal drink and development drink herbal tea. Local plants used in the study was Khlu (Pluchea indica (L.) Less). The leaves Khlu tested phytochemical composition antioxidant testing by testing their ability to reduce the amount of chemicals 11-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) tests the amount of phenol used Folin-Ciocalteus reagent nutritional analysis and the amount of cellulose and developed the herbal drink tea. The research found that 1. Phytochemical composition of Khlu leaf is mainly flavonoids and tannins anthracnones. 2. Extracted from the leaf extract with methanol showed the ability to reduce the amount of substance 11-Diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) was the most abundant. Fresh leaves dried leaves and dried leaves were 30 days values at 131.23 ± 1.42 127.55 ± 1.03 and 125.90 ± 1.28 μg / ml respectively. 3. Extracts from the leaf extract with methanol showed the highest phenolic content as follows: fresh leaves dried leaves and dried leaves for 30 days were 84.91 ± 0.54 82.44 ± 1.09 and 81.01 ± 1.25 mg GAE / g dw respectively. 4. The optimal conditions for the process of making Khlu tea is a temperature of 70 °C for 7 hours. The score of sensory evaluation in terms of appearance color aroma flavor (astringent) and overall were 7.37 ± 1.22 7.23 ± 1.16 6.97. ± 1.30 7.00 ± 1.14 and 7.63 ± 1.10 respectively.

This research proposes a hidden Markov model for detecting machines with multiple fillers producing soft drink for quality control in order to reduce defective products. The proposed model is compared with a classical generalized estimating equations model (GEE). The monthly data the number of defective products the correctness and the time spending in correction were collected from a machine in a sample factory in Pratumthanee province. The two hidden states of the fillers are workable and unworkable. The states has a logistic distribution. The results show that the correctness of the filler error occurrence does not improve the probability of being in a unworkable state neither the period of time spending on correction. The current state seems to be the same as the previous state