The purpose of this research was to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the export values of alcoholic beverages using three-time series analysis methods including Box-Jenkins method damped trend exponential smoothing method and combined forecasting method. Time series data from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics with total 199 months from January 1998 to July 2014 were used and divided into two series. The first 192- month data from January 1998 until December 2013 were used to build the forecasting models and the last 7-month data from January to July 2014 were used to compare the forecasting method accuracy via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. Research findings indicated that for all forecasting methods that had been studied combined forecasting method was the most accurate method and this model was when and represent the single forecasts at time t from Box-Jenkins method and damped trend exponential smoothing method respectively.

The purpose of this research was to construct an appropriate forecasting model for the export quantity of frozen and chilled chicken using three time series analysis methods including Box-Jenkins method Holt’s exponential smoothing method and damped trend exponential smoothing method. Time series data from the website of the Office of Industrial Economics with total 130 months during January 2004 to October 2014 were used and they were divided into two series. Fristly 120 months from January 2004 to December 2013 were used to build the forecasting models and lastly 10 months from January until October 2014 were used to compare the forecasting methods accuracies via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. Research findings indicated that all forecasting methods that had been studied damped trend exponential smoothing method were the most accurate method and showed the forecasting model as where m represented the number of periods to forecast ahead with the starting value was January 2014 (m = 1).