จำนวน Repository ( 2 )
Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Automotive Part of Foreign Markets to Thailand
The problem of this research is automotive part companies do not have order because of the world economic crisis and effect to automotive industry. Automotive and automotive parts demand in the world decrease. Automotive Industry of Thailand received affect. Automotive part companies cannot export to foreign markets. The companies in Thailand need the forecasting of automotive part quantity demanded by foreign markets by selecting the most accurate model. This paper presents the modeling for forecasting demand for automotive part of foreign markets to Thailand with time series forecasting techniques. In this study the automotive part are wheels and including parts and accessories because Thailand exported the most in group of automotive parts. These five countries have consistently demanded the largest number of wheels and including parts and accessories are Japan China South Korea Germany and Indonesia. The research involves historical collecting data for the period of 1997 to 2008. The evaluation function of forecast error is used with MAPE. The results reveal that each country suits for each model in term of the chosen dimension. The government can use the forecasting demand for effective production planning by informing manufactures.
The Design of a Forecasting Support Models on Demand of Durian for Domestic Markets and Export Markets by Time Series and ANNs.
The objective of this research is to design forecasting support models on demand of durian for domestic markets and export markets for durian gardeners durian entrepreneurs of domestic markets and export markets and the Office of Agricultural Economics to plan durian demand conforming with domestic markets and export markets because of Production and marketing main problems (The Agricultural Information Center The office of Agricultural Economics: 2008) such as over - much durian production during production capital increased farmers durian sold price tended to be lower and lower inefficient domestic market management and more export but cheaper price therefore after that to design forecasting for the purpose in order that durian would not be over demand which is containing factors of the demand of durian fresh durian frozen durian paste and durian chips for domestic markets and export markets exported to Asia America Australia and Africa. The research involves historical collection data in the period of 2002 to 2008. The basic of forecast models are the designed and improved models using an intelligent knowledge-based approach beginning Moving average Deseasonalized Exponential smoothing Double exponential smoothing and Artificial neural network (ANNs) program within the model of new value Creation and comparative accuracy models. The evaluation result of forecasting durian demand showed that lowest MAPE of Deseasonlized models at 3 month was durian fresh durian frozen and durian paste but durian chips showed that lowest MAPE of ANNs at 4 input 10 hidden layers and 1 output was high accurate forecasting and optimal models. The analysis recommendations and error forecast of durian demand are also presented.