จำนวน Repository ( 2 )

Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Automotive Part of Foreign Markets to Thailand
Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Automotive Part of Foreign Markets to Thailand

The problem of this research is automotive part companies do not have order because of the world economic crisis and effect to automotive industry. Automotive and automotive parts demand in the world decrease. Automotive Industry of Thailand received affect. Automotive part companies cannot export to foreign markets. The companies in Thailand need the forecasting of automotive part quantity demanded by foreign markets by selecting the most accurate model. This paper presents the modeling for forecasting demand for automotive part of foreign markets to Thailand with time series forecasting techniques. In this study the automotive part are wheels and including parts and accessories because Thailand exported the most in group of automotive parts. These five countries have consistently demanded the largest number of wheels and including parts and accessories are Japan China South Korea Germany and Indonesia. The research involves historical collecting data for the period of 1997 to 2008. The evaluation function of forecast error is used with MAPE. The results reveal that each country suits for each model in term of the chosen dimension. The government can use the forecasting demand for effective production planning by informing manufactures.

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Modeling and Forecasting of the Supply of Durian for Consumption in Domestics and Export Markets
Modeling and Forecasting of the Supply of Durian for Consumption in Domestics and Export Markets

This research aimed to design and construct a forecasting support system on demand of fresh durian of Thailand by applying 2 mathematical models which were Time Series model and Artificial Neural Network model in order to find an accurate model of forecasting support system on demand of durian yield to forecast durian yield quantity of Thailand in advance and use the forecast results to plan and determine quantity of fresh durian and durian product conforming with domestic consumption and export in order not to be over demand and cheap durian sold price. The forecast models were applied with Time Series model by using Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Single Exponential Smoothing and Holt’s Linear Exponential Smoothing techniques and Back Propagation of Artificial Neural Network model which used 4 input variables relating to durian yield. All of the forecast models were used to forecast total durian yield quantity in 26 provinces of durian cultivated area all around Thailand. Durian yield quantity data used was from 1996 to 2008. After that the forecast results were used to find the errors of MAE MSE RMSE and MAPE. Then the errors of each forecast model were compared. The forecast model which had the least error was the most accurate forecast model. The research result is following. Back Propagation with 4-8-1 structure of Artificial Neural Network model had the least error so that it was the most accurate forecast model to forecast fresh durian yield quantity in advance.

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