The shallow water model is a mathematical model was developed from the shallow water equations. It consists of the continuous flow and the momentum equation of non-linear in the x-axis and y-axis. The boundary conditions of the model is the cyclic continuity from east to west and the open boundary conditions from north to south. The northeast monsoon forecast by the shallow water model can’t be predicted in a long time period because the boundary conditions of the model has a problem. Thus improvement the boundary conditions of shallow water model by using wall boundary condition from north to south. The results of this research to found that the shallow water model can correctly forecast the northeast monsoon period in the long term.

Weather predictions by an atmospheric model are determined by the uncertainties in the initial condition and the imperfection of the model. It is difficult to provide accurate weather prediction. The efficiency of weather predictions model is obtained from the analyses of Lyapunov exponent. In addition the predictability measurements is applied from Lyapunov exponent are finite size Lyapunov exponent finite time Lyapunov exponent local Lyapunov exponent together with a new method called supremum Lyapunov exponent are used to measure predictability of the northeast monsoon (winter monsoon) by the Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) and to test sensitivity of the model to small initial perturbations. The EdGCM sensitive to initial perturbations it is suitable for predictability of the northeast monsoon. The EdGCM is run for 142-year predictions from the year 1958 to 2100. However only the outputs of geopotential height at 500hPa of December from 2012 to 2100 are used for predictability measurement. The results show that the EdGCM predictability for the northeast monsoon forecast is about 120 years. So the EdGCM can be predictability of the long range forecast. Supremum Lyapunov Exponent Click to buy NOW! PDF-XChange Viewer www.docu-track.com Click to buy NOW! PDF-XChange Viewer www.docu-track.com