จำนวน Repository ( 3 )

การวิเคราะห์เชิงพื้นที่ มลพิษทางอากาศ ในกรุงเทพมหานครและปริมณฑล
การวิเคราะห์เชิงพื้นที่ มลพิษทางอากาศ ในกรุงเทพมหานครและปริมณฑล

The objectives of this research are to propose a linear mixed model including spatial effects to present the distribution of air pollution of each gas being Sulphur dioxide (SO2) Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) Carbon monoxide (CO) and Ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10) and to investigate the factors related to those air pollution in each area of Bangkok Metropolitan Region. The spatial effects are assumed to be a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. The dependent variables are the amount of SO2 NO2 CO O3 and PM10 in each area and the independents considered are Industrial area business area and suburb area. The results indicate that the factors influencing the amount of air pollution ranking from most to least are industrial area suburb area and business area respectively.

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การวิเคราะห์อิทธิพลที่มีผลต่อผลผลิตพืชไร่ทางเศรษฐกิจที่สำคัญในพื้นที่เพาะปลูกเขตภาคกลางของประเทศไทยด้วยตัวแบบทางคณิตศาสตร์อย่างมีประสิทธิภาพ
การวิเคราะห์อิทธิพลที่มีผลต่อผลผลิตพืชไร่ทางเศรษฐกิจที่สำคัญในพื้นที่เพาะปลูกเขตภาคกลางของประเทศไทยด้วยตัวแบบทางคณิตศาสตร์อย่างมีประสิทธิภาพ

The objectives of this research are to propose an approate and efficient model for analyzing rice corn and sugar yields data. A linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial correlation following the conditional autoregressive model (CAR) was adopted. The results show that for rice yields if the amount of rainfall in a harvest season increases 1 mm the yields will decease by 25.74 tons. if the temperature in the harvest season increases 1 Celsius the yields will decease by 212.60 tons and according to the trend the yield will increase by 15.80 tons each year. For sugar cane yields if the amount of rainfall in the harvest season increases 1 mm the yields will decease by 51.35 tons. if the temperature in the harvest season increase 1 Celsius the yields will incease by 121.30 tons and according to the trend the yield will increase by 29.93.80 tons each year. For corn yield if the amount of rainfall in the havest season increases 1 mm the yields will incease by 73.45 tons. if the temperature in he havest season increases 1 celsius the yields will decease by 40.44 tons and according to the trend the yield will increase by 1.74 tons each year.

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ตัวแบบผสมเชิงเส้นสาหรับข้อมูลอนุกรมเวลาเชิงพื้นที่ที่มีฤดูกาลรวมอยู่ด้วยประยุกต์ใช้กับผลผลิตยางพาราในจังหวัดภาคใต้ของประเทศไทย
ตัวแบบผสมเชิงเส้นสาหรับข้อมูลอนุกรมเวลาเชิงพื้นที่ที่มีฤดูกาลรวมอยู่ด้วยประยุกต์ใช้กับผลผลิตยางพาราในจังหวัดภาคใต้ของประเทศไทย

The objectives of this research are to propose a linear mixed model (LMM) for spatial time series with a seasonal component to apply the proposed model to monthly rubber yields in southern provinces of Thailand to forecast rubber yields in southern provinces of Thailand and to compare the performance of the proposed model to the Holt-Winters Additive Exponential smoothing model (Holt-Winters ES) and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA). The proposed model is a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects following a conditional autoregressive model (CAR model). Seasonal dummy variables and Fourier terms are two methods used to account for the seasonal effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation. The estimated monthly yields are used to forecast the monthly rubber yields. The dependent variables are the monthly rubber yields in each province. The effects considered are spatial effects heterogeneity effects and seasonal effects. The data are secondary data at a provincial level. The results show that the effects influencing on the amount of rubber yields are spatial heterogeneity and seasonal effects. The proposed model with sesonal dummy variables is the most appropriate model copared to the LMM with Fourier sesonal effects Holt-Withers ES and SARIMA. The mean absolute errors (MAE) are smallest in both model fitting and model validating parts. The proposed model with sesaonal dummy variables should be the first consideration for forecasting spatial time series with a seasonal component.

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