The objectives of the research are (1) to study the exposure of weather forecast program in Bangkok and (2) to study the format and presentation of popular TV weather forecasts in Bangkok. The study is mixed methodology. The quantitative data shows that (1) Bangkok respondents exposed to weather forecast program from Channel 7 the most. The frequency of exposure is in high level because they wanted to follow the daily weather forecast to be prepared for any natural disaster. (2) The format of TV weather forecasts which received the popularity from Bangkok respondents is the mixed format of new reporting and drama conveying by a gesture and acting of a news reporter or a drama character with a written script. The hypothesis test indicates that (1) Respondents in different age and occupation show different frequency in weather forecast exposure (2) Respondents in different age education and occupation have a different exposure in weather forecast programs. (3) Respondents in different age education and occupation prefer different weather forecast programs (4) Respondents in different educational and occupation prefer different content of weather forecasts. (5) Respondents in different age education and occupation have a different preference in news reporters. (6) Respondents in different age education and occupation have a different preference in reporting locations. (7) Respondents in different age and occupation have a different preference in graphic design. (8) Respondents in different age and occupation have a different preference in sound effects. And (9) Respondents in different age education and occupation favour in participate differently in weather forecast news. The qualitative data shows that (1) Teenager and adult respondents prefer both presentations of news reporting format and the mixture format of new reporting and drama whereas elderly respondents only prefer the mixture of news reporting and drama format. (2) The content of weather forecast news should have a variety that is not only to provide weather forecasts of 6-24 hours and disaster warning but also provide other contents of weather condition or daily life tips. (3) The element of weather forecast news should be completed appropriate and modern. A news reporter should have a good personality and understanding the content with a comfortable voice and clear pronunciation. A news photo should reflect a real situation and look interesting. Also a photo should be clear and bright. Whereas graphic of wording still and moving photo should be created with creativity clear and beautiful. Sound effect and music should be selected carefully to create colorful mood of weather forecast news.

Weather forecasts are very necessary to predict the future weather conditions. The important thing in forecasting is the model and variables. The model used in the forecasting must be accurate and effective. In addition the variables used in forecasting must be comprehensive and appropriate to be able to represent the forecast. The initial conditions for forecasting must be appropriate and reliable. There are many methods to generate the initial conditions in forecasting. To generate the initial conditions for winter monsoon prediction with Kalman Filtering method which is a method used to predict the status of various systems and able to create values of variables used in forecasting to have a variety of similarities can be used as a starting variable in forecasting very well. In this research the winter monsoon prediction by the Shallow Water Model and validating the initial conditions by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The result of weather prediction in the winter monsoon can be used the Kalman Filtering method for generate the initial conditions.

Weather predictions by an atmospheric model are determined by the uncertainties in the initial condition and the imperfection of the model. It is difficult to provide accurate weather prediction. The efficiency of weather predictions model is obtained from the analyses of Lyapunov exponent. In addition the predictability measurements is applied from Lyapunov exponent are finite size Lyapunov exponent finite time Lyapunov exponent local Lyapunov exponent together with a new method called supremum Lyapunov exponent are used to measure predictability of the northeast monsoon (winter monsoon) by the Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) and to test sensitivity of the model to small initial perturbations. The EdGCM sensitive to initial perturbations it is suitable for predictability of the northeast monsoon. The EdGCM is run for 142-year predictions from the year 1958 to 2100. However only the outputs of geopotential height at 500hPa of December from 2012 to 2100 are used for predictability measurement. The results show that the EdGCM predictability for the northeast monsoon forecast is about 120 years. So the EdGCM can be predictability of the long range forecast. Supremum Lyapunov Exponent Click to buy NOW! PDF-XChange Viewer www.docu-track.com Click to buy NOW! PDF-XChange Viewer www.docu-track.com