The objectives of this research are to propose a Bayesian model for spatial time series analysis to apply the proposed model to forecast a monthly rubber yield in Southern provinces of Thailand and to compare the performance of the proposed model with the classical Holt-Winters Additive Exponential smoothing. The proposed model is a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects which follow a conditional autoregressive model (CAR). Dummy variables are used for seasonal effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation. The estimated monthly yields are used for the monthly rubber yield forecasting. The dependent variables are the rubber yield in each month of each province. The data are secondary data at a provincial level. The factors considered are spatial effects heterogeneity effects and seasonal effects. The results show that the factors influencing on the amount of rubber yields are spatial heterogeneity and seasonal effects. The proposed model is proper and forecast accurately. Using the mean absolute error (MAE) the proposed model has a better performance compared to the classical Holt-Winters Additive Exponential smoothing in both model fitting and model validating. The proposed model should be the first consideration for spatial time series forecasting.

This study aims to development of production process of hard metal by tungsten carbide powder with the particle sized of 0.1 - 0.35 µm. This carbide powder were made of recycling cemented carbide tool scraps so it is mixed with Ta = 2.82 % Mo = 0.45 % Nb = 1.22 % Ti = 4.56 % Zr = 0.37 % The shape of the carbide powder are roughly round due to ball milling for 300 hours. It was mixing cobalt 10 % and Paraffin wax 2 % which is found the work piece that running through the process of sintering with a temperature of 1400 °c and 1430 °c have the hardness of 1368.5 and 1346.3 HV respectively. In one hour of holding time process the work piece with 1430 °c of the sintering causes less wear. After the test of turning operation it can be concluded that the tungsten carbide cutting tool provides the equivalent quality as a standard cutting tool.

This Research purposes assessment of lightning performance on transmission system 69 kV in Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA). The case studies illustrated the lightning strike to direct top pole in order to guideline considering the critical flashover voltage value of insulator is able to withstand it and improvement lighting protection in the future. This solution analyzes using the Alternative Transient Program-Electromagnetic Transient Program (ATP-EMTP). The result found that voltage across insulator before and after improvement lightning protection by external ground wire. Factor effect to voltage across the insulators is the tower footing resistance wave of lightning current and interval between towers. It depends on relation with front time of wave. The analysis economics is very important. This Research is studying interruption cost of outage since back flashover so analysis the break even point of the installation external ground. The result found upon improvement lightning protection by installed external ground. The pay back period of that is 9 years installed ago. This result can conclusion is external ground able reduction interruption costs of outage.

This research aims to study the properties of PMA asphalt shingle roof mixed withnatural latex by various contents of natural latex to PMA asphalt (e.g. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.52.0 2.5 and 3.0 by weight). The heat pot was used to mix the mixture with lower than160 degree of Celsius. The PMA asphalt shingle roof mixed with natural latex sampleswere cast in 20 x 20 x 0.5 centimeter of dimension and added the fiber plate and stoneflake to reinforce and decorate the roof plate. The properties of the roof plates weretested under ASTM standard. From the results it is found that all samples can resist thetemperature higher than 200 degree of Celsius and the increasing of natural latex (lowerthan 1.5 of ratio) can improve the hardness property while the tensile strength andelongation properties are decreased. However when the amount of natural latexincreased to 2.0 of ratio the tensile strength are increased. After compare the PMA asphalt shingle roof mixed with natural latex (2.0 of ratio) and the general shingle roof found that the researched shingle roof can use as well as the general shingle roof and more tightly. The research results can develop to the PMA shingle roof products and replace the import shingle roofs.

This research aims to produce scrap page kaolin of brick construction. The kaolin clay ratio of 100: 0 80:20 60:40 50:50 40:60 20:80 and 0: 100 by volume Add mixed with rice husk and rice 15 percent by weight A total of seven ratios. According to standard tests or TIS. 77-2545 ordinary story brick building. The moisture content and water absorption is increasing. While density Thermal conductivity resistance flexural and compressive strength tends to decrease. The best ratio of 80:20 by volume with compressive strength 43.16 kg / cm 2 and 24.93 percent water absorption. Criteria standard of TIS. 77-2545 requiring compressive strength not less than 35 kg / cm2 and water absorption must not be higher than 25 percent. Can be used in the manufacture of brick construction including building decorative wall can be developed into products. Because skin color and beautiful