The objective of this research is to use a stochastic process for building a model using Bayesian parameter estimation. The model is applied to the of crash prices and future prices of rice in Thailand for 120 moths including monthly closing average price of white rice 5% non-glutinous paddy 15% and Hom Mali non-glutinous paddy 105. The data are time series data containing autocorrelation trend seasonality and outliers. The algorithms are turned into codes in OpenBugs and the performance of the model is evaluated using simulation in R. The model with a Weibull cumulative distribution function trend the model with an exponential cumulative distribution function trend and the exponential smoothing model are compared. The root mean squared error (RMSE) mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are used as the criteria. The results show that the model with the model with an exponential cumulative distribution function trend gives smallest RMSE MAPE and MAE for the crash prices of non-glutinous paddy 15% and Hom Mali non-glutinous paddy 105 for both model fitting part and model validation part. The model with a Weibull cumulative distribution function trend gives the smallest RMSE MAPE and MAE for the closing average price of white rice 5% for both model fitting part and model validation part.

The objectives of this research are to propose a Bayesian model for spatial time series analysis to apply the proposed model to forecast a monthly rubber yield in Southern provinces of Thailand and to compare the performance of the proposed model with the classical Holt-Winters Additive Exponential smoothing. The proposed model is a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects which follow a conditional autoregressive model (CAR). Dummy variables are used for seasonal effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation. The estimated monthly yields are used for the monthly rubber yield forecasting. The dependent variables are the rubber yield in each month of each province. The data are secondary data at a provincial level. The factors considered are spatial effects heterogeneity effects and seasonal effects. The results show that the factors influencing on the amount of rubber yields are spatial heterogeneity and seasonal effects. The proposed model is proper and forecast accurately. Using the mean absolute error (MAE) the proposed model has a better performance compared to the classical Holt-Winters Additive Exponential smoothing in both model fitting and model validating. The proposed model should be the first consideration for spatial time series forecasting.

This study aims to development of production process of hard metal by tungsten carbide powder with the particle sized of 0.1 - 0.35 µm. This carbide powder were made of recycling cemented carbide tool scraps so it is mixed with Ta = 2.82 % Mo = 0.45 % Nb = 1.22 % Ti = 4.56 % Zr = 0.37 % The shape of the carbide powder are roughly round due to ball milling for 300 hours. It was mixing cobalt 10 % and Paraffin wax 2 % which is found the work piece that running through the process of sintering with a temperature of 1400 °c and 1430 °c have the hardness of 1368.5 and 1346.3 HV respectively. In one hour of holding time process the work piece with 1430 °c of the sintering causes less wear. After the test of turning operation it can be concluded that the tungsten carbide cutting tool provides the equivalent quality as a standard cutting tool.

A distributed generation is a small-scale Installed in the customer density sources. The benefits of distributed energy resources is one example. To improve the reliability of power distribution system for the better. The increased reliability of power distribution system that is connected to the source of power distribution efficiency depends on the size of the supply and installation of power distribution are considered appropriate. To Evaluation the reliability in distribution system with the main purpose is to the minimization for customer interruption cost. The technique employed to minimization problem for customer interruption cost in solved by the developed tabu search algorithm together with reliability worth analysis that provide an indirect measure for cost implication associated with power failure. The developed methodology is tested with a distribution system of Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) bus 2. Numerical results from the tests demonstrate that distributed generation can be used to promote economy and reliability of the distribution systems.

This Research purposes assessment of lightning performance on transmission system 69 kV in Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA). The case studies illustrated the lightning strike to direct top pole in order to guideline considering the critical flashover voltage value of insulator is able to withstand it and improvement lighting protection in the future. This solution analyzes using the Alternative Transient Program-Electromagnetic Transient Program (ATP-EMTP). The result found that voltage across insulator before and after improvement lightning protection by external ground wire. Factor effect to voltage across the insulators is the tower footing resistance wave of lightning current and interval between towers. It depends on relation with front time of wave. The analysis economics is very important. This Research is studying interruption cost of outage since back flashover so analysis the break even point of the installation external ground. The result found upon improvement lightning protection by installed external ground. The pay back period of that is 9 years installed ago. This result can conclusion is external ground able reduction interruption costs of outage.